The outcome of the first round of the presidential elections which see Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen through to the second round – as per opinion polls – and the positive market reaction are in line with my core scenario and expectations.
I am also sticking to my forecast that Macron, who is leading Le Pen by 22 percentage points in the polls, will win the 7thMay run-off to become President, which would in turn likely lead to a further albeit modest rally in the euro.
French opinion polls, which have historically been accurate in “predicting” the outcome of the first and second round of presidential elections, have Macron comfortably winning the second round.
Macron has broad cross-party political support, Le Pen does not.
Presidential candidates with a small number of elected-official sponsors, such as Le Pen, have never become president.
Macron has a reasonably high “positive ranking” in popular polls, Le Pen does not.
Le Pen seemingly does not yet enjoy broad political appeal even if she will likely perform better than her father did in the 2002 presidential elections.
The National Front won 27.4% of the popular vote in the second round of the 2015 French regional elections but only 18.7% of the seats as a result of mainstream parties coalescing against the National Front.
Elections in the Netherlands and Austria suggest that voters are not yet ready to elect far-right parties to the highest echelons of power.
Read the full article on my website.