Going Dutch and Fed’s Next Big Data Hurdle

The outcome of the Dutch general elections would tend to support my view that while nationalist and/or populist parties in Europe are in the ascendancy, there has been a tendency to over-estimate their reach and their ability to dismantle the eurozone and/or EU.

It has also reinforced my expectation for the French presidential election that an above-average voter turnout would at the margin help centre-left candidate Emmanuel Macron and that Front National candidate Marine Le Pen will lose in the second round of voting on 7th May whether she faces Macron or, in a more unlikely event, Fillon.

In the US, the Federal Reserve has kept its options open by broadly sticking to a narrative which pencils in three hikes in 2017, in line with my expectations.

With the Fed seemingly comfortable with the path of inflation and employment, the next big data hurdle is likely to be Q1 2017 GDP data for the US due out on 28 April.

Read the full article on my website.

Advertisements