Black Swans and White Doves

In the past week European and global politics, strong US growth data, mixed global macro numbers and eurozone, Chinese and Indian central bank policy have eclipsed Trump-mania.

What is perhaps more remarkable is markets’ reasonably benign, “risk-on” reaction, bar the euro’s sell-off in the wake of today’s ECB policy meeting.

One interpretation is that markets have become complacent to the risks presented by President Trump’s constellation of pseudo-policies, surging nationalism in Europe, the UK’s uncertain economic future and continued capital outflows from China.

I have a somewhat different take, namely that markets are rightly discounting some of the more extreme and perverse scenarios, including:

  1. Protectionist US policies coupled with higher US yields and a strong dollar collapsing tepid emerging market, and eventually global, economic growth;
  1. The “no” vote in the Italian referendum leading to the economic collapse of the European Union’s third largest economy;
  1. Surging European nationalism culminating in the collapse of the eurozone and/or European Union;
  1. The British government opting to sacrifice growth in exchange for a hard version of Brexit and;
  1. Capital outflows from China ultimately forcing policy-makers into accepting a Renminbi collapse and shocking a corporate sector with significant dollar-debt.

Read Black Swans and White Doves on my website.