75% of 130 analysts, consultants, journalists, finance specialists, real-sector heads, policy-makers and portfolio managers forecast that the UK electorate will vote in favour of the UK remaining in the European Union (EU) in the 23rd June referendum, in a survey which I conducted between the 10th and 16th May. That ratio jumps to 81% when the 10 respondents who did not have a view are excluded.
By comparison, the latest poll-of-polls conducted by What UK Thinks has the “remain” vote on 52% and “leave” vote on 48% five weeks before this crucial vote. But caution is warranted given the large share of undecided voters, the importance of turnout and differing results depending on whether polls are by phone or on-line. Current prices offered by betting companies suggest a comfortable victory for the “remain” vote.
Of the 130 respondents with a view which I surveyed, 65% forecast that the UK leaving the EU would be negative for the British economy medium-term. 19% forecast that it would be positive and 15% that it would be neutral. This is broadly in line with the view expressed by Prime Minister Cameron and “remain” camp, the Bank of England and IMF.
Read the full article on my website.