The ECB meets on 22 January and with Eurozone inflation having turned negative and growth stalling, there is a high probability it will announce a fully-fledged bond buying program. Its immediate goal will be to cap peripheral bond yields and systemic risk ahead of Greek elections on 25 January. Ultimately it will be tasked with staving off deflation and generating jobs – a tall ask for a measure of last resort which by definition has its limitations. Its effectiveness will depend on its size – likely to be around €1 trn – and modalities but will be curtailed by its late timing. For EUR/USD it likely means further downside in coming months, in my view.
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